Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in academia but scarcely any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with even the essentials. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two articles that seek neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions cover national emblems, levies, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the idea that there might be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a incompetent official who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has possesses valuable insights to gain from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster must participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
