š Share this article An Forecasting Platform Participant Made $436,000 from Bets on Venezuela's Political Shift. In this photo illustration, a Polymarket logo is seen displayed on a smartphone. A bettor made nearly half a million dollars by predicting the removal of the Venezuelan leader just before it was publicly declared, raising questions about potential gains made from inside knowledge of American actions. Market Movement in Predictions Wagers on Polymarket, a blockchain-based service, that the Venezuelan president would be out of power by the close of the month surged in the hours before former President Trump stated on Saturday that Maduro had been apprehended. A single trader, which registered on the site last month and took four positions, all on political events in Venezuela, earned over $436K from a starting bet of $32.5K. It remains unclear. This unidentified trader had only a blockchain identifier for identification. Market Signals Before Announcement Platform data shows that users assessed the probability of Maduro's exit at just 6.5% in the afternoon of the Friday before the event. But these probabilities had increased to over 10% by late Friday night and surged in the early hours of January 3rd, indicating a rapid movement in positions right before the public announcement was made. "This specific wager has all the hallmarks of a bet based on inside information," said an industry expert. A small number of other platform users also made tens of thousands of dollars from predicting the capture. Legal Questions Emerges Some lawmakers are beginning to pay attention. A new rule presented on the start of the week seeks to ban federal workers from making trades on prediction markets if they have "material nonpublic information" related to a wager. Industry Context Event-driven betting sites have grown significantly in the United States, with traders able to bet on everything from sports outcomes to politics. Prediction markets faced scrutiny under the last presidential term. However it has found a more favorable environment during the Trump presidency. Insider trading is illegal in the securities markets, but there are fewer regulations in the event betting arena. An official representative for Kalshi said their site "strictly forbids insider trading of any form."